February 28, 2013

Peak shale oil in Nature magazine

Nature, the somewhat scientific journal, has just published a comment on shale gas and oil (Energy: A reality check on the shale revolution) by peak-oiler J. David Hughes.
[P]roduction is likely to be below the exuberant forecasts from industry and government.
[The US Energy Information Administration's] predictions are wildly optimistic given the fundamentals of producing these hydrocarbons.
[T]he industry practice of fitting hyperbolic curves to data on declining productivity, and inferring lifetimes of 40 years or more, is too optimistic.
[I]ndustry must recognize that shale gas and oil are not cheap or inexhaustible [...]
Wait. This sounds familiar.

No comments:

Post a Comment