Analytics

November 22, 2011

CO2 emissions, health and education

"With Earth's human population reaching 7 billion in the past month" it is Time to stop celebrating the polluters (in Nature). Chuluun Togtokh wants the Human Development Index (HDI) of the UN to incorporate CO2 emissions because he thinks both that CO2 emissions are a proxy for unsustainability and that the HDI as currently constructed "encourages countries" to behave irresponsibly. CO2 emissions are not a good measure of unsustainability, "countries" don't behave, and I doubt anyone tries to earn more, educate himself or live longer just to increase the HDI of his country. But I want to focus on another bizarre statement:
Emissions are positively and strongly correlated with income; less so with the HDI; and not at all with health and education.
Togtokh doesn't say how he got these results. But they look wrong. According to Gapminder World, CO2 emissions do correlate strongly with income:


And more or less equally so with the HDI:


And also with life expectancy (the measure of health in the HDI):


With child mortality (not included in the HDI):


And with years of schooling, the measure of education used in the HDI (the graph includes the data for women, but an even stronger pattern applies to men):



November 16, 2011

Thomas Dietz, Adam Smith, rationality and manipulation by unscrupulous agents

In Nature (In retrospect: The art of influence), Thomas Dietz "reassesses" Robert Cialdini's 1984 book Influence, which argued (again) that decision-making is often irrational and subject to "manipulation by unscrupulous agents."
We make decisions based on narrow self-interest, calculated benefits, costs and risks. Or so claimed economist Adam Smith, whose 'rational actor model', from his 1776 opus The Wealth of Nations, has long dominated thinking in economics and social science. By the late twentieth century, Smith's view had been applied to every domain of human decision-making, from marriage to international negotiations. But a growing body of evidence began to indicate that the model was often misleading.
Adam Smith claimed that we sometimes make rational, self-interested decisions (as exemplified by an unscrupulous salesman trying to manipulate his customers' wishes) and that a model that we always decide that way would often be misleading (as exemplified by those customers who, against their own interests, fall victim to the salesman's tactics). He said it in 1776. In 2011, Dietz agrees with him. But he writes as if Adam Smith never said such things.
Cialdini saw that Smith's model of rational decision-makers, immune to any influence other than information, was simplistic.
Mythical Adam Smith is, to say it in improper English, one of the strawest men ever.
Mainstream policy analysis still relies heavily on the assumption of a rational decision-maker, but social psychology is starting to affect how policies are designed. In the 2008 book Nudge (very much a descendant of Influence), authors Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein argue that insights from the social sciences — such as our strong tendency to choose the default option no matter what it is — can be used to encourage better decisions.
This paragraph doesn't make sense. Thaler and Sunstein's proposal would replace the current system of government coercive paternalism with one they call "libertarian paternalism" based on free, but subliminally directed, choice. In either case paternalism assumes that people are irrational and thus unable to make wise choices by themselves. In what sense does "mainstream policy analysis still rely heavily on the assumption of a rational decision-maker"?

Dietz later makes the good point that although "libertarian paternalism" may be better that outright coercion, "unscrupulous agents" in government may use the salesman tactics Cialdini documents in his book to "manipulate us against our own interests."

November 03, 2011

The politics of a Science editor

Reviewing a new movie for Science, Sacha Vignieri, who is an associate editor of the journal, writes:
All people deserve an equal quality of life, but the unfortunate truth is that Earth cannot sustain a developed-country level of consumption for billions of people. As pointed out in the film, it would take all the resources of 10 Earths to support the current global human population at the consumption level of the United States.
There are three unsupported statements in this text:
1. All people deserve an equal quality of life.
2. Earth cannot sustain a developed-country level of consumption for billions of people.
3. It would take all the resources of 10 Earths to support the current global human population at the consumption level of the United States.